As you know, I was eliminated from the P&G-sponsored Blogger Fantasy Football League* last week. Luckily I played in six leagues this year, making the playoffs in four of them, and giving me plenty of motivation to stay up on the latest in the fantasy world.
With the carnage of Week 15 now settling in, it looks like I will have one team advancing to the championship round. While I’d like to have more than one chance at a title, if I was going to pick a league to win other than the P&G league, it would be this one. It’s the league with all my college friends that I’ve been in for close to 10 years now. Major bragging rights are on the line!
So as we look forward to Week 16, I know that there will be less of you reading these articles, but I also know that the stakes are as high as possible, so I’m not skimping on the research, recommendations, or Q&A.
Fantasy Football Week 16 Waiver Wire Sleeper Picks
***Carolina and Pittsburgh play Thursday night; Dallas and Arizona play Saturday night.***
Remember, a player must be owned in less than 50% of Yahoo leagues to be included in this post. Additionally, I primarily focus on players’ values for Week 16, although in certain cases I’ll recommend players who may not be immediately valuable this week but who stand out as valuable long-term acquisitions.
Fantasy Football Week 16 Waiver Wire Sleeper Picks: QB
Ryan Fitzpatrick, Buffalo (49%, v New England)
I did not think Ryan Fitzpatrick was a very good start in Week 15 because he was going up against a Miami defense that had been playing very well. In addition, he had lost #2 WR Lee Evans. All Fitzpatrick did was go out and throw for 200+ yards and 2 TDs. With a Week 16 matchup against New England’s improving but imperfect pass defense, Fitzpatrick is a sneaky play.
Jon Kitna, Dallas (49%, at Arizona)
Kitna had a very nice matchup in Week 15 against Washington, but I was worried that he could struggle with Dez Bryant and Roy Williams both out. There was nothing to worry about, however, as Kitna utilized Miles Austin and Jason Witten on his way to a stellar fantasy day. Arizona has a very up and down defense, and quarterbacks such as Troy Smith have had great days against the Cards. Kitna should be a safe bet for a couple of TD throws in Week 16.
David Garrard, Jacksonville (48%, v Washington)
Garrard has been very consistent this year, and he has a terrific matchup against a Washington D that is dealing with injuries and ineffectiveness. Assuming Garrard is healthy (he was dealing with a gimpy hamstring before Week 15) he should be able to put up 2 total TDs (rushing or passing) and do what almost every other QB who has faced the Redskins has done: have a good fantasy day.
Tim Tebow, Denver (8%, v Houston)
I cannot believe that in Week 16 I can legitimately recommend Tim Tebow as a guy you should think about, but here we are.
Mainly, it is the matchup. Houston has one of the worst defenses in the NFL and everyone but Rusty Smith has been able to take advantage for a big fantasy day. While Tebow is much closer to Smith than he is a sure-fire top fantasy player, there are reasons to think he could have a nice day. Against Oakland in Week 15, Tebow scored a TD and threw for a TD in the first half. That running ability, which Smith did not have, is what gives Tebow value even if his throwing is off.
I would not start him over any of the guys listed above, but if you’re desperate or in a two-QB league, Tebow legitimately has some value this week. Crazy.
Rex Grossman, Washington (2%, at Washington)
Talk about crazy. Who would ever thought that both Tim Tebow and Rex Grossman would have value in Week 16. But they do!
Grossman returned as a starter in Week 15, replacing Donovan McNabb amid much fanfare, and responded by throwing four TD passes. As we saw in Chicago, Grossman is capable of huge 3- and 4-TD games, and he’s also capable of total stinkers. The only reason I’d consider him this week is because he is facing a Jacksonville defense that gives up a lot of yards and points.
Other names to keep your eye on:
- Kerry Collins has now had two straight strong games. Playing at Kansas City is not a particularly great matchup, but at least Collins and the Titans offense has been clicking over the last six quarters.
Fantasy Football Week 16 Waiver Wire Sleeper Picks: RB
Christopher Ivory, New Orleans (47%, at Atlanta)
There is no reason for Chris Ivory to be owned in less than 100% of leagues. I know he is dealing with a hamstring injury, but he has also run for five TDs over his last three games. He was a late scratch in Week 15, leading me to believe that his injury is not overly serious and that he’ll be able to play in Week 16. Sure, the matchup is tough, but Ivory should retain his starting job after Pierre Thomas and Reggie Bush did nothing on the ground in Week 15.
Donald Brown, Indianapolis (28%, at Oakland)
Welcome back to the NFL Donald Brown! After doing nothing the last few weeks as the lone healthy back from the Colts’ original rotation (Addai, Hart both were inactive again), Brown exploded in Week 15. Granted, the matchup was very favorable (against Jacksonville), but 100+ yards and a TD is a solid day for anyone in the NFL. I had been high on Javarris James leading into Week 15, but it’s pretty clear that Donald Brown will be their feature back as long as Joseph Addai is out.
Caveat: you have to check Addai’s status leading up to kickoff. If he’s healthy, who the hell knows what the Colts’ backfield rotation will look like.
Tashard Choice, Dallas (28%, at Arizona)
This one is all about the matchup. Arizona has one of the worst run defenses in the NFL, and even backups have value against them. Choice’s role has been a bit inconsistent lately, but he seems like a safe bet for around 10-12 touches — and I would think that he would still get these touches even if Marion Barber is back, though that’s not guaranteed. Felix Jones struggles to stay healthy throughout games, and Choice has been the guy getting the goalline carries. He’s not an ideal option, but if you’re desperate he does have some potential.
Maurice Morris, Detroit (9%, at Miami)
I really thought Jahvid Best was going to take the role of the Lions’ RB lead back. However, Maurice Morris was the one given the opportunity to take advantage of Tampa Bay’s weak run D in Week 15, and he responded. Morris scored a TD and had 100+ total yards. Miami is not a great matchup because they’ve been doing a great job against the run, but at least you know Morris will get double digit touches.
Fantasy Football Week 16 Waiver Wire Sleeper Picks: WR
Mike Thomas, Jacksonville (43%, v Washington)
You would be wise to see if Mike Sims-Walker (64%) is available in your league. He isn’t racking up the catches or yards, but he’s become a reliable redzone target. If MSW is not available, Mike Thomas has some value against a Washington defense that can be thrown on. Thomas has two fluky TDs this year (Hail Mary, punt return) and hasn’t been doing as much damage as a WR lately. That could change this week in what should be a high scoring game.
Danny Amendola, St. Louis (44%, v San Francisco)
Amendola had a couple of slow weeks, but he re-emerged in Week 15 with 7 catches for 60 yards against the Chiefs. The emergence of Brandon Gibson as Sam Bradford’s new favorite target probably helped to ease some pressure off of Amendola. Against San Franciso earlier this season, Amendola caught 7 passes for 51 yards and a TD. After watching the Chargers and Seahawks do well through the air against the 49ers the last couple of weeks, Amendola is probably the most likely to have a nice game against them in Week 16.
Jacoby Ford, Oakland (28%, v Indianapolis)
Jacoby Ford’s number of touches will never be consistent from week to week, but here is what does seem to be consistent: he always make a play. In Week 15, Ford had a rushing TD. We’ve seen him have a couple of 100-yard receiving games. Ford has also had two kickoff return TDs this year. If you’re desperate, Ford’s explosiveness makes him a decent flex option in TD leagues and return yardage leagues.
Kevin Walter, Houston (32%, at Denver)
We can give up on Walter having that breakout season where he becomes a 1,000-yard receiver and 8-10 TD guy. However, as the 2010 season goes along, Walter is showing increasing value. His catch and yardage numbers have increased for three straight weeks, and he caught a TD in Week 15. Walter is far from a sure thing, but with Champ Bailey likely to be clamping down on Andre Johnson, there could be some opportunities for Walter.
Anthony Armstrong, Washington (10%, at Jacksonville)
The Jags are not very good on defense, and Armstrong is coming off a 100-yard game in Week 15. While Santana Moss and Chris Cooley catch the TDs in Washington, Armstrong has plenty of value in yardage-based leagues. He is averaging nearly 20 yards per catch and, like Thomas, should be able to put some numbers in what should be a high scoring affair.
Fantasy Football Week 16 Waiver Wire Sleeper Picks: TE
Owen Daniels, Houston (46%, at Denver)
That’s two straight games now that Daniels has put up nice catch and yardage totals for the Texans. I think it’s safe to say that he is healthy. With Andre Johnson likely to struggle at least some with Champ Bailey, and Matt Schaub doing a nice job of spreading it around lately, I anticipate Daniels being a top 10 tight end this week when I do the rankings.
Kevin Boss, New York Giants (37%, at Green Bay)
With Steve Smith out for the year, Boss has taken advantage by scoring three TDs over the last four weeks. He won’t wow you with his catch or yardage totals, but he has his QB’s confidence and trust. Boss, like Daniels, is a sneaky top 10 play this week at TE, and is surprisingly available in more than 60% of leagues.
Fantasy Football Week 16 Waiver Wire Sleeper Picks: Defense/Special Teams
St. Louis Rams (14%, v San Francisco)
The Rams’ defense has been playing worse as the season has gone along, but any defense facing Alex Smith and the 49ers is worth a shot. While Smith occasionally plays like the #1 overall pick he was supposed to be, he usually is too indecisive and inconsistent to be a huge threat, especially on the road. If you’re choosing from slop, the Rams are a decent option.
Detroit Lions (15%, at Miami)
The Lions continue to play hard despite being on their third QB and long since being eliminated from playoff contention. In Week 16, they get to face Chad Henne, who is one of the worst starting QBs in the NFL. While he and Brandon Marshall seemed to get going a bit in Week 16, you really don’t have to worry about Miami exploding for 17+ points. Again, like with the Rams, if you’re desperate for a D you could do worse than Detroit.
The comment section awaits for all your questions.
NOTE: I will not be answering questions from Wednesday, December 22rd starting at about 5:00 until Friday morning (the 24th). So don’t panic if you don’t get answers right away. I’ll do my best to get all caught up before kickoff on Sunday.
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* – The P&G Blogger Fantasy League (BFL) is a group of 12 digital sports influencers competing on the NFL.com fantasy platform for the chance to win P&G product, a donation to a local charity, and a trip to Super Bowl XLV, all furnished by P&G. The NFL Entities have not offered or sponsored the sweepstakes in any way.